Lookout Brexit fans – the odds on UK leaving the EU ‘on time’ might leave you shocked

  • UK set to leave the EU in March, 2019
  • Betting markets unsure whether UK will have left by then

Those who are staunch fans of Brexit and want the UK to leave the EU within the two year timetable might want to look away now.

The bookmakers are not too bullish on the UK leaving the EU according to the timetable.
The bookmakers are not too bullish on the UK leaving the EU according to the timetable.

Bookmakers are suggesting that the UK leaving on time might not be the done deal some were hoping.

When the UK voted to leave the European Union on Thursday, June 23 2016, many up and down the country, and globally, were shocked at the result.

The British government duly invoked Article 50 on 29 March 2017, thereby beginning the formal process of leaving.

And though the UK is set to have left the EU by the end of March 2019, there are many sceptics who think the UK will still be part of the EU by that time, given the complexity involved in extricating itself from the union.

With that in mind, here’s a look at some of the latest odds on when the UK is likely to leave.

Leaving the EU

William Hill is currently offering the following odds for the year the UK will officially leave the EU: 12-1 for 2018 or earlier, 4-6 for 2019 and 5-4 for 2020 or later.

Firm believers in Brexit may be slightly alarmed by those odds – 5-4 is remarkably short, given the timetable has been sold as a two-year exit process.

Bets will be settled on the UK’s first full day outside of the EU.

Betfair’s betting exchange is offering bets on whether the UK will have left the EU by the end of March 2019; the current odds are 2.56 (39-25) for ‘yes’ and 1.58 (29-5)for ‘no’. This suggests the timetable is likely to slip.

The betting exchange also has numerous other bets available for various other time frames for leaving, going from 2017 right up until 2022 and beyond. Another worrying sign for staunch ‘Brexiteers’.

Other Brexit bets

Paddy Power is offering a number of ‘Brexit specials’ – bets pertaining to Brexit.

It’s promoting odds of 5-6 on no formal Brexit deal being reached before April 1st 2019, as well as odds of 3-1 on the UK applying to rejoin the EU by 2027; the bookmaker is also offering a bet on another EU referendum being held before 2018, with odds for this bet at 7-1.

Feelings of uncertainty

Although a clear majority voted to leave (51.9% to 48.1%), it’s safe to say there is a general feeling of uncertainty about Brexit – particularly in terms of what it will look like for the UK and what sort of deal will be had.

While there are still those trying to keep the UK in the EU, there’s also the fact that Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party Theresa May lost a fair bit of support when she held a general election in June earlier this year and fared worse than expected.

She believed the party would gain a majority vote, though it actually lost seats and ended up having to form an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.

May wanted to strengthen her hand with a big victory, but was claimed to have ended up muddying the waters on what Brexit might look like.

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